Markets affect investor psychology, but investor psychology also affects markets. Readers might try to imagine the role of psychology in their own actions. Try to reconstruct what you were thinking or feeling when you bought or sold a stock. What prompted you to pick up the telephone? To what degree did mood and intuition, as opposed to analysis, affect the decision? What assumptions caused you to pay heed to a particular piece of information? Why did you weigh one piece of information over another?
Then try to imagine what the person on the other side of the trade was thinking. Investors tend to forget that whoever buys the stock you sell or sells the stock you buy has gone through his own analysis of the situation. There is a genius on one side of every trade and a dolt on the other, but which is which does not become clear until much later.
Investing is as much a psychological as an economic act. Those most adept at profiting from a particular market are often least likely to notice when the game is over, and probably the least psychologically prepared to profit from the successor market. Why should they change something that has worked so well for them? Most of the heroes of the "go-go years" in the '60s turned out to be goats in the '70s. We will see how the heroes of the great bull market of the late '90s do in the years to come.
Pub date: 12/18/03
Price: $15.00/23.00 Canada
Carton Quantity: 40
Selling Territory: WORLD EXCL UK & COMM EXCL. AUSTRALIA & N. ZEALAND
Pub history: PublicAffairs hc